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Opinions - Paul's blog

Archive for the ‘Opinions’ Category

PostHeaderIcon Colonoscopies and pot odds

diceThis post is related to my two previous posts.
Recently I was listening to some details about a certain type of ‘minimally invasive’ surgery, when at some point the risks were brought up.
It was explained that this procedure was relatively safe, as it had a risk, expressed in mortality rate, comparable to that of a colonoscopy.
That sounded very reassuring, since a colonoscopy doesn’t involve incisions and messing with vital organs.
Then I saw the actual numbers and sure enough, they were fairly close.

But I was shocked nevertheless.

In 2004 I had a colonoscopy, based on my primary care physician’s recommendation to ANYONE who turns 50, to have one. Just as a precaution.
Since they did remove some polyps, it was recommened to have another one in 2006. I’m overdue for that one, and I really should get one scheduled.

Or SHOULD I?

I’m still shocked by the mortality rate of a colonoscopy. It was given as around 1 in 2000.
It is recommended that by the time you turn 50, you should get a colonoscopy, and then one every 5 years after that (or more often when they find something).
There are about 50 million people over the age of 50 in the US. If they would all follow the recommendation, each year 10 million people will have a colonoscopy! With the above mentioned mortality rate, 5,000 people WILL die each year by simply having a colonoscopy.
This scares me a lot.
I had no idea that such a procedure would kill one out of every 2000 patients.

The past few days I have been thinking a lot about this number.
And now I do of course realize that there’s another side of this coin. Something that poker players may recognize as a pot odds calculation: what is the cost of NOT having one. What are the odds that I DO develop undetected colon cancer.
When I wrote my ‘Odds’ post, I was still heavily leaning towards not going in for my second one.

But now, considering that this is widely recommended (so you think that someone has done the proper statistical analysis of the odds involved1.) PLUS the fact that I am more at risk due to the removed polyps .. maybe I SHOULD get another one.

I’m not asking my readers to make this decision for me, but I would appreciate their thoughts on this mortality rate2..


1.Here I appear to follow one of my commenter’s remarks, basically saying “If the authorities say it’s safe, I don’t care too much about the numbers”. But there is a difference I think.
2.I restricted myself to mortality, there are also various other, rather nasty, risks (like colon perforation) that require immediate and complicated surgery)

PostHeaderIcon On making $43,750 per hour

FordFord, who posted a $12.7 BILLION net loss last year, paid its CEO Alan Mulally $28 MILLION for four months work.

This is just plain wrong.

Link to article: link

PostHeaderIcon Coming out

Pete Stark CSAApparently, last weekend Congressman Pete Stark (D-California), has come out as someone who does not believe in a supreme being. This makes him the first congressperson ever to admit such a thing.
He made this statement:

When the Secular Coalition asked me to complete a survey on my religious beliefs, I indicated I am a Unitarian who does not believe in a supreme being

To be perfectly clear:

ALL HE DID WAS INDICATING ON A POLL THAT HE DIDN’T BELIEVE IN A SUPREME BEING.

That’s all. Nothing more. He didn’t confess that on ‘the floor’, he didn’t request special treatment and he certainly didn’t bash other people’s beliefs. He was just being honest (while he was the first one to ADMIT this, I’m sure there are more people in congress who share his disbelief).

And LOOK at the reactions!

For a long time I have believed that a very important basic ingredient for people’s tendency to be religious is fear. (To be a God-fearing person is considered a positive Christian trait, and you’d better fear hell too!).

I have seen the fear component manifest itself often and at various levels of consciousness, but seldom have I seen it so clearly as in this outburst from The Christian Seniors Association (CSA). See link.

Allow me a few quotes from that article and my comment on it:

… they want to establish a right for liberals to bash Christians and berate God around the clock …

ALL HE DID WAS INDICATING ON A POLL THAT HE DIDN’T BELIEVE IN A SUPREME BEING.

It is time for religious members of Congress to push back.  A simple declaration of a belief in God by members of Congress on the House floor will be greatly informative for the American people…

To “push back”? Note: Pete Stark did NOT announce his disbelief on the House floor.

ALL HE DID WAS INDICATING ON A POLL THAT HE DIDN’T BELIEVE IN A SUPREME BEING.

We have long recognized that all of this hot air about ‘separation of church and state’ has been a veiled effort to intimidate and silence religious voices in public policy matters …

Isn’t it a bit ‘un-American’ to call your own country’s Bill Of Rights ‘hot air‘? And no, it was not to intimidate, and no it was most certainly not veiled. It is a very CLEAR meassure to, indeed, keep ‘religious voices out of public policy matters’. That’s why it’s called ‘separation of church and state’. But in any case, it’s not something that Mr. Stark even so much as mentioned.

ALL HE DID WAS INDICATING ON A POLL THAT HE DIDN’T BELIEVE IN A SUPREME BEING.

If the liberal House leadership refuses to recognize lawmakers who want to affirm their belief in God …

Wait a minute now, NOBODY was refusing anyone anything …

ALL HE DID WAS INDICATING ON A POLL THAT HE DIDN’T BELIEVE IN A SUPREME BEING.

But based on some of these remarks, I think it IS valid to state that it is the CSA who ‘refuses to recognize lawmakers who want to affirm their disbelief in a god‘.

Congressman Stark’s statement [ … ] could be the moment which defines the decline of our country …

You’ve GOT to be kidding me! This would define the decline of our country?

ALL HE DID WAS INDICATING ON A POLL THAT HE DIDN’T BELIEVE IN A SUPREME BEING.

… the day that religious Americans stood-up to the liberal bullies who are so determined to use the power of government to silence prayer and every other religious expression of free speech.

Okay, NOW someone is REALLY going overboard here. NOBODY wants to deny religious people their right to pray and believe whatever they want. All that the non-religious people ask is to not have those beliefs FORCED upon them and that their tax money isn’t spent on some specific religions.

However, congressman Stark didn’t even mention that request.

ALL HE DID WAS INDICATING ON A POLL THAT HE DIDN’T BELIEVE IN A SUPREME BEING.

While I agree there is some rather nasty bullying going on here, it is NOT Pete Stark who is the bully!

This is a fight which is destined to be fought in America and we think it should begin today.

This is a FIGHT?

ALL HE DID WAS INDICATING ON A POLL THAT HE DIDN’T BELIEVE IN A SUPREME BEING.

PostHeaderIcon Slippery slope

KhalidAnd suddenly we hear from Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (KSM) again!

I must admit, I wouldn’t have been surprised if we never would have heard from him again (like a few other high profile terrorists who made the headlines when they were captured).

“I was responsible for the 9/11 Operation, from A to Z,” Mohammed … said …

Mohammed, … also said he was responsible for a 1993 attack on New York’s World Trade Center, the bombing of a nightclub in Bali, Indonesia, and an attempt to down two American airplanes using shoe bombs.

Wow! He was the guy behind all that?

Does that mean we’re now going to release Ramzi Yousef, who we have in custody for masterminding the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center? (Granted, KSM IS his uncle). And Bali? I thought they picked up Abu Bakar Bashir for that. For that same bombing in Bali, the US has Riduan Isamuddin (known as Hambali) in custody (in an ‘undisclosed location’, which, as we now all know, means either Israel or somewhere in Europe, probably in one of the Balkan countries).

But, as it now turns out, is was KSM who masterminded it all and confessed to it all.

You know … somehow I can’t get the thought out of my mind that KSM was being … well … let me say … ‘given an incentive’ or ‘persuaded’ to admit all this. I also wouldn’t be surprised if some of the pressure that was put on him involved some levels of discomfort. Maybe even more than some ‘okay’ (Cheney!) ‘waterboarding’.

If I would have had the same audience as some of my bluddies, I could imagine the TONS of comments along the line of “I don’t give a rat’s ass: FRY the pig!”

And, you know, I totally understand that sentiment.

But is it right? Wouldn’t we be stooping down to what we so despise in our ennemies? Besides, from a practical point of view: if we (illegaly!) torture them so that they confess .. so that we can kill them legally .. what’s the point? Why not (illegaly) kill them right away? Saves a LOT of money, time and problems.

Anxious to receive some comments on this .. but I know, that’s slightly problematic with only two readers 😉

And yes, I also put this in the ‘religion’ category. Is KSM a serial killer, a beast, an animal? No, I think he’s primarily just a deeply religious being.

Link to article: link

Update:

Today [3/15/2007] it became known that KSM also admitted to having beheaded Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl in 2002.

In fact, I thougt that that was what he was picked up for in the first place, but anyway, I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear tomorrow that he masterminded Jimmy Hoffa’s disapearance as well, or had the hand in JFK’s assassination.

Link to article: link

PostHeaderIcon Nutcases … or?

SoundYesterday we had a drink in a bar and while waiting for my Corona I read an ad in a local paper.
It was about a ‘seminar’ organized by the ‘Unity Church of Melbourne (FL)’ (no, this is not another ‘religion’ rant).
I rolled my eyes, let my wife read it and we both had a good laugh.

For $35 you can attend this presentation tonight here in Melbourne, where a certain Dr. Emoto will explain that (I doubt he will explain ‘how’) crystals in freezing water are bright and colorful when the water is subjected to ‘loving words’, as where water exposed to ‘negative thoughts’ will produce crystals with “asymetrical patterns with dull colors”.
He has established this astonishing and shocking fact by using high speed photography.
Why anyone needs high speed photography to watch water freeze is beyond me, but okay, I’m not a professional ‘water researcher’ like Dr. Emoto. (Since the freezing of water is a rather slow process, I COULD imagine that he would have used the exact opposite way of recording what is happening: time lapse photography! But high speed photography? That’s just plain nucking futs!)
Says Dr. Emoto:

“We must pay respect to water, and feel love and gratitude, and receive vibrations with a positive attitude. Then, water changes, you change and I change, because both you and I are water.” ~ Dr. Masaru Emoto, The True Power of Water.

The second speaker tonight is a certain Helena Reilly. She is an expert on “the process of transformation utilizing Scalarwave technology to release deep seated emotional, physical, mental and spiritual blockages“. She also works closely with best selling author Dr. Masaru Emoto (yes, the other guy from the seminar) in the co-creation and distribution of the “EmLloy” products.
I don’t know what scalar waves are but it all sounds impressive.
Tonight Helena Reilly will unveil the breakthrough Scalarwave technology of Voice Analysis Hydration System (VAHS).

No, I’m not making any of this up!
Read that add for yourself: link

I wondered what exactly this spectacular new invention would be all about, but I don’t want to spend $35 on finding out, so I did some googling.
I think I now know exactly what she will ‘unveil’ tonight: She will ‘unveil’ that you can actually buy this wonderful machine from them for the ridiculously low price of $4000. You can see it here: don’t forget to click on the picture to enlarge it: link

Yes, that’s $4000 for a computer speaker system, a cheap microphone, and some wires coiled around a bottle of water!

There’s an incredible amount of mumbojumbo and pseudo-scientific nonsense on their website: link.
If you can actually read all that without your bullshit detection kit’s bells and whistles going berzerk, then you need some education in critical thinking!

Please browse around and let me know what you think about these folks:
Nutcases or .. just plain old con artists?

PostHeaderIcon Frank Zappa and Big Brother

ZappaIn my previous post I used the phrase “.. treating dandruff by decapitation”. I didn’t make up that expression, I borrowed it from Frank Zappa, who used it when he was referring to the attempt to setup some censorship for song lyrics back in the 80’s. I found the expression on (in?) Wikipedia, doing some research after I watched a video of him being on ‘Crossfire’ more than 20 years ago.

I’d like to share this video with you.

My reasons:

First of all, this is, again, about freedom versus governmental control, and I totally agree with Zappa’s views of over 20 years ago expressed in this clip. Including the belief that there are strong forces at work trying to turn this country into a fascist theocracy, even though the main topic was censorship.

Second, I’m a Frank Zappa fan. What this man has done in his career as a musician is simply incredible.

Third, I simply found it remarkable how he dealt with the whole event: here’s a guy who is being accused of the dirtiest things, gets words put into his mouth, is almost violently attacked and he just sits there … neatly dressed, suit and tie, very articulate, stays relatively calm (yes, okay, he tells one of the guys, when he gets too vitriolic, “kiss my ass”, but hey.. this is Frank Zappa .. in this program, because of his belief that one should be allowed to say things like that …), and manages to get his point across despite the three (!) loudmouths that keep yelling at him.

Fourth, it’s entertainment! Hey… this is Frank Zappa! And yes, he is very serious (he has seriously considered running for president). But still.

See for yourself .. (okay, it is a bit long, but this is historic material)


Link to Zappa on Crossfire in 1986

For more on Zappa, see Wikipedia (link).

PostHeaderIcon Big Brother School

Beers Read in the news today (link):

Teens who drink alcohol could be caught three days later under a high school’s new testing policy for students.

The test, which will be given randomly to students at Pequannock Township High School, can detect whether alcohol was consumed up to 80 hours earlier.

I think this is wrong. Very wrong.

If I had a kid in that high school I would make it very clear to the school that I, as a parent, am responsible for raising my kid. And that the only thing I expect from the school is, that they teach my child reading, writing and arithmetic (and a few other things). And where I, as the parent, reserve the right to meddle in what my kid is being taught I do not want the school to meddle in how I raise my kid. It’s simply neither their task nor function.

What is next? Tests to check if they have smoked? Tests to see if they had sex? Tests to check if they got enough sleep? Tests to see if they have been to church? Lie detector tests?

Will the phrase “there will be a test tomorrow” take on a completely different meaning?

In my humble opinon, schools should only do what they were created for: to teach our kids certain skills. And they’d better focus on that, since they’re not doing that good a job compared to the rest of the world. I know quite a few high school graduates who can’t spell ‘definitely’ and don’t know how much 7 times 8 is. Maybe the school should test the teachers for alcohol use!

This is Big Brother stuff that we should allow nor condone. It, again, is a measure that erodes our privacy and freedom. Yes, high school kids have a right to privacy too.

Besides, so what if a few kids actually do consume, oh horror, some alcohol? It’s not like they killed someone. This all sounds like overreacting anyway. It’s like treating dandruff by decapitation.

And make no mistake: you and I are paying for these tests!

(And I’m not even going to mention that the test is far from perfect and rather prone to false positives: what is that going to do to a kid, having to see a counselor for having used regular mouthwash or eaten a nice salad with Balsamic vinegar. The stigmatic effect of false positives alone should be enough reason for abandoning this whole stupid, hare-brained idea. Okay, so I mentioned it anyway. Bite me!).

(For those who wondered: there is no ‘a’ in “definitely” and 7 times 8 is 56).

(And, no, do not click on that picture)

PostHeaderIcon Pat is hearing voices … again

PatAs usual, Pat Robertson has made a prediction for the new year.

And no, I’m not going to make him NCOTW for that .. that would be too easy.

Anyway, Pat predicted that there will be a terrorist(s) induced mass killing somewhere after September 2007.

Actually, I shouldn’t say ‘prediction’, because Pat obtained this information, first hand, from God Himself.

God wasn’t very specific about the actual number of victims, the method or the place (which somehow takes away a bit from the usefulness of this revelation, but okay, apparently God likes to keep some ‘outs’), but Pat ‘believes’ millions of people will die in this disaster, which is ‘probably’ nuclear in nature and involves major cities.

Last year, God told Pat that storms and possibly a tsunami would crash into America’s coastline. The tsunami never happened (why did God say ‘possibly’ .. wasn’t he sure?), but, granted, it rained in New England in 2006.

He used this to emphasize his good track record: said Pat:

“I have a relatively good track record,” he said. “Sometimes I miss.”

What is all this I business? Isn’t it God who would have that track record? Isn’t Pat just the messenger? The channeler?

Even more curious is this “sometimes I miss“. Okay, so it’s obvious that God, being omnipotent and all that, doesn’t miss anything. But what does Pat “miss“? Isn’t he listening when God speaks to him? That’s pretty rude! Or does God speak a language that Pat doesn’t fully know (and if so, why doesn’t God speak English, just like the rest of the world)? Or does God mumble, speak too fast or too soft? How can Patmiss” things? Very odd, these “misses”.

I’ll let you in on a secret here: I can’t prove it of course, but somehow I have the distinct feeling that Mr. Robertson wasn’t told anything by the Lord, but that he just made it all up, so that in the event there is a horrible terrorist attack with millions of victims in a major city (uhm, duh, you can’t get millions of victims by bombing Bandera, Texas), he can then proclaim to be the new Moses with a direct, and proven!, line to God and that everybody has to listen to Pat “Moses” Robertson “from now on”. That’s what I think!

I could be wrong of course.

But I don’t think I am.

Here’s a question for my readers:

If you can talk to dead people, you’re called a psychic (well.. actually, talking to dead people is easy: the trick is to get them to talk back to you, and this is what most psychics claim happens).

Now, if God talks to you … are you a psychic?

Link to article

PostHeaderIcon Corporate greed

Nardelli(disclaimer: I own Home Depot stock, so I am slightly biased) 

Bob Nardelli, CEO of Home Depot, resigned yesterday.

He was an inflexible dictator with a huge disregard for Home Depot’s shareholders.

A huge disdain even: during last year’s shareholders meeting, where a lot of shareholders had some tough questions for the board of directors -about the CEO’s insanely high compensation package and the horrible business results: stock had sunk 9% in the same period that competitor Lowe’s saw a 185% increase!-, only ONE board member showed up: Nardelli himself. He was an absolute arrogant prick, didn’t acknowledge any of the severely time limited questions and ran out after only 30 minutes. The shareholders were steaming!

Home Depot stock hasn’t gone anywhere the past few years: he basically screwed up.

And now, yesterday, he resigned.

And I’m mad as hell.

Not because he left .. good riddance .. but because this screwup got rewarded with a severance package of $210 million!

That’s almost a quarter billion dollar!

NOONE should get such an amount, not even for having done outstanding work, and thus certainly not for having accomplished close to nothing (and most definitely not when it’s essencially my money!).

This is criminal. Corporate greed in its extreme. I’m so mad, I can barely type. I simply feel robbed. In a very brutal way. Violated almost. Grrrrrrrrr….

Someone… quick, get me my bloodpressure pills!

PostHeaderIcon When being politically correct is wrong

canyon(rant warning) 

I have thoroughly had it with all this political correctness business. It’s about time we again say it as it is.

If people are offended by the truth and the facts, then that’s their problem.

The latest “politically correct” idiocy I read this morning was about the Bush administration telling the Grand Canyon Park that their employees can no longer comment on the age of the Grand Canyon, so that they won’t offend creationists (probably based on the incorrect assumption that all creationists think the earth is only somewhere between 6,000 to 10,000 years old). (See link to article)

Folks, this is not politically correct. This is politically wrong!

It is wrong, it is cowardly stupid, it is frightning, it is dishonest, and above all, it’s unfair to our children when we are no longer allowed to teach them the facts of life, simply because a small group of people who are too delusional to accept some simple facts and too afraid to use their own God-given brain, could possibly be offended by the truth.

(the above sentence was designed to offend. Every time my right to free speech or free access to scientific knowledge is infringed upon or blocked in order to prevent some people from being offended, then I will have to protect my rights and access to knowledge by negating the effect of the political correctness by offending the very group that was being ‘protected’.)

So, since we’re now at a stage where, when you ask a park ranger how old the Grand Canyon is, he will put his fingers in his ears, close his eyes and starts humming loudly, we have to wonder how long it will take before he’s forced to explain that, well, there’s a distinct possibility that it’s 5,000 years old, created by Noah’s flood (or by a Scottish tourist who lost a dime). (Link to the Noah’s flood farce)

And why stop at the age of the Grand Canyon? There is a large group of people, who, based on biblical interpretation, are convinced that the Sun goes around the Earth (geocentrism), and not the other way around (heliocentrism). Shouldn’t we tell our college’s astronomy departments to refrain from telling our children that the planet Earth goes around the sun, so that we don’t offend these geocentrists? (see for instance this website -there are many like this, no kidding!-)

And Nasa should at once stop broadcasting images of the International Space Station circling the Earth, since this will, no doubt, deeply offend the good folks of the ‘Flat Earth Society’! (See their website -they’re serious! No, really!-).

Not to mention the majority of all politicians who should immediately refrain from making any sound, because anytime they open their mouths they deeply insult my intelligence.

None of that nonsense! You can’t make an omelet without breaking an egg. Grow up, get a life, work on getting a thick skin. Feeling offended is being insecure. It’s that simple.

I wish I had the power to start a strong ‘boycot-political-correctness’ movement.

Let’s tell and say it how it is. Simple, factual, truthfully and to the point.


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