Comments on: Odds

By: Paul Claessen

Paul Claessen — Sat, 21 Apr 2007 14:21:28 +0000

@Craig .. you really didn’t read the post, did you?

By: Craig

Craig — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 05:35:28 +0000

Great write up… THe chance of a plane crash is so little there is no point worrying 🙂

By: Eddy

Eddy — Mon, 09 Apr 2007 16:59:38 +0000

I never feel comfortable (secure) on an airplane, while I know the chance of becoming a victim of an airline disaster is relatively low.
So… NO I would not even think of flying with an average of 10 planes a day crashing. Heck, it would be dangerous to even walk outside with that many planes falling out of the sky 😉

By: Paul

Paul — Mon, 09 Apr 2007 16:51:47 +0000

@Sean .. Thanks for your response. Btw, I’m not quite sure I understand it, though. I DID say a) there are 30,000 flights each day and b) 10 would crash every day. Isn’t that as clear as sying 10 flights out of 30,000 will crash each day?

And about giving it a chance .. wow, that makes you a dare devil in my book! You REALLY would get in a plane tomorrow if you knew that EVERY SINGLE DAY, there WILL be 10 fatal airplane crashes?

By: Sean

Sean — Mon, 09 Apr 2007 15:52:07 +0000

Well I’d just give it a chance then. Just a thought, it becomes a bit misleading when you say 10 flights in the US will crash. You should probably have said 10 flights out of 30 000, makes it a lot clearer.

By: Paul

Paul — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 23:49:44 +0000

Interesting reactions, but I’m afraid I haven’t been quite clear enough about this.
As for Suze’s comment, I have to assume (and this post was ALL about ‘assuming’) that she means that car crashes are WAY more common than airplane crashes. Which is true.
As for Injun’s comment: quite interesting too, but in a puzzling kind of way.
Quite frankly, I don’t quite get it. How is looking at the ‘absolute’ odds different from looking at the “overall statistics”? Injun APPEARS to say “When, according to government rules and norms, it IS safe, then .. I will deem it safe, no matter what the ‘absolute odds’ say”.
I know him better than to ‘go’ with this kind of reasoning .. hence my confusion.
Again, I have to stress, that my odds were NOT realistic! It was just an excercise! IF you are put into a position, voluntarily, where going along with whatever it was you were asked to do, would kill one out of 3,000 people.. would you do it? I chose flying as an example. I could have chosen riding a roller coaster. Let me ask this again: ASSUME (the key word here! DON’T look up real statistics!) that this ride is the direct cause of death of one out of every 3,000 people riding it. EVEN though (for Injun), according to norms and regulations, this ride is deemed ‘safe’ .. would you ride this roller coaster?
(And in the end, it’s not about flying or roller coasters… my post follows after your guys’ answer)

By: Suze

Suze — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 22:36:37 +0000

The odds of dying in a car crash are significantly higher that the “odds” Paul quotes here …. by now you must have realized that he borrowed those odds from somewhere ….

By: Injun

Injun — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 21:54:18 +0000

I don’t look at the absolute % chance figure; I just look at the overall “transport” statistics and conclude that both air and train travel are much much safer (per mile, or per trip taken) than going by car, and certainly by motorcycle – which I use nearly every day. If I accept the chances of the latter, I surely accept the chances of the former – so I don’t give taking a plane a second thought.
Not sure how these “relative odds” fit in your story of “odds perception”, but I guess we’ll soon find out 🙂

By: Paul

Paul — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 14:30:28 +0000

@Nicole .. it probably would. But this post isn’t really about the safety of flight. It’s more about odds perception… more on it later.

By: Nicole Leong

Nicole Leong — Sun, 08 Apr 2007 14:06:38 +0000

I’d check up on the plane models, and check on the statistics of that particular plane model crashing. That would be a lot more accurate, wouldn’t it? =)